Amazon Makes Purchase History; NASA Stalled Again; and Space Force Bolder than Ever! 6 April 2022 - Space Brief
In today’s space brief, (1) important words from Space Force and US Space Command leadership on the changing nature of the space domain, (2) NASA is forced to stop SLS again, and (3) the huge launch procurement announcement made by Amazon. Stick around.
1. NASA ended its first attempt to conduct a wet dress rehearsal for the maiden flight test of the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft to the moon on yesterday, after four days of wrestling with a series of technical challenges and weather delays.
Engineers were able to get one of the massive core stage’s tanks about 50 percent filled with liquid oxygen before having to stop on Monday. They were unable to load liquid hydrogen into another SLS tank due to a technical problem.
Launch Director Charlie Blackwell-Thompson explained during a media teleconference on Tuesday that “This was the first test at the pad with cryogenics…one of our primary objectives is now complete… [and] three of the five secondary objectives are now complete.”
The wet dress rehearsal is one of the final steps before SLS launches the uncrewed Orion crew capsule on a weeks-long flight test to the moon.
Two problems I see with this situation, the first is less egregious than the first. The first is the issues with the weather. Obviously no one can control that. But I do question the resilience and usefulness of a system like the SLS if any spout of rain or cloud cover has the capacity to completely shut things down. Maybe that is an unfair expectation, but I hope we can eventually move past hearing that weather is the primary source of planning failure. But second, it is concerning to hear about the technical problems. This disappointment is a bit of a two-edged sword because, on the one hand I believe it would be a good thing for NASA to take on a little bit more risk and be willing to test things out on the pad rather than constantly sacrificing time and money for one more design review. But on the other hand, it seems like at this point the SLS should have been well past this point. That’s just my initial reaction though.
2. From the Space Symposium happening in Colorado, Chief of Space Operations, Gen. John W. "Jay" Raymond, said April 5 that the cornerstone to U.S. security and prosperity is keeping space "accessible, stable, and secure."
Raymond stated to an audience of space experts and advocates from government, military, industry and academia that "We find ourselves in a period of great competition for space with nations that don't share our view . . . It's a competition where the outcome is no longer assured, and it's a competition that we cannot lose. Because if we lose our access and ability to operate freely in space, we all lose."
Gen Raymond’s speech doubled down on the fact that space has become universally recognized as a conflict zone that must be defended and protected using new practices and more sophisticated hardware.
He went on to say "We must pivot to a more resilient space architecture. . . .Resilience is more than a buzz-word. Resilient space architectures can be protected, they can survive through that contested nature (of the domain), they degrade gracefully when attacked, and can be rapidly reconstituted if lost."
"If deterrence were to fail, we would face an adversary that has integrated space into all aspects of their military operations. They use space to detect, track, and target our forces with long-range precision weapons.”
US Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall was even more blunt in a speech he gave a few hours prior when he said "Space is a warfighting domain now.”
General Raymond outlined three areas where space plays a crucial role in the nation's broader national security - "integrated deterrence, campaigning, and actions that build enduring advantage" - and offered specific achievements within each category as examples of the Space Force's growth.
"Integrated deterrence is about combining our national strengths to maximum effect across all instruments of power, across domains, across theaters of operation, across the spectrum of conflict, and across our unmatched network of alliances and partners," he said.
"Our primary purpose is to deter war. . . We do that by showing strength, by showing that we would win. In peacetime, we must be visibly present in orbit - just as we are on land, on the sea, and in the air - to show that the rules-based order that has been upheld since World War II applies everywhere."
However, he added, "We can only achieve these goals with our international partners, who are absolutely critical to our campaigning activities. We only succeed in deterrence and conflict, if we find common cause with our allies and partners.”
3. As part of the same symposium, Gen. James Dickinson of U.S. Space Command, a military combatant command responsible for operations in outer space, said on April 5 that they need more access to cutting-edge technology from the private sector.
Of particular interest are services now offered by private companies that track space objects and analyze the data.
Dickinson said he recently submitted to the Defense Department a “commercial integration strategy” calling for more government-industry partnerships to give Space Command easier access to commercial space services.
The existing processes for buying services from industry “need to change because the times have changed, capabilities by the industry have changed, and many more companies are providing those services,” said Dickinson.
According to a summary of the strategy handed out to reporters, Space Command is interested in commercial capabilities in space domain awareness, command and control, artificial intelligence and big data management, modeling and simulation, space control systems and satellite communications and terminals.
Partnerships with companies that provide space data as a service would help Space Command because the military does not have sensors that can monitor every area of space and many companies now have sophisticated sensor systems.
He stated “We need information to understand what is happening in space. . . This is all about location. Because in order to be able to observe the space domain for any of the orbital regimes, you have to be in certain parts of the world and we’re not in all those parts of the world. That’s just a fact.” By partnering with companies that help fill those gaps, “we can build a common operating picture in the space domain so we can have a better understanding of what we’re doing and what’s happening.”
“Our pacing challenge is China. So our ability to move quickly is very important.”
Comparing ourselves to China is a tough game at this stage, because in many ways, the US is trying to innovate while China is still very much in the stage of catching up to US space capabilities. But it is, in my opinion, far to early for us to pat ourselves on the back for this difference because China has proven itself so incredibly adept at catching up and has become a serious point of leadership and technological competition with the US. And with their state-run system, while innovation may not keep pace with democratic or capitalistic capabilities, their ability to integrate the state and private efforts is amazing. I hope this call to the private sector to work through new methods with Space Command and the Space Force can be carried out effectively while still not damaging that system of capitalistic democracy we are trying to protect in the first place.
4. Proposed Securities and Exchange Commission rules that would make special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) mergers more like traditional initial public offerings could have a significant impact on space sector financing.
Jim Lee, Maxar Technologies senior vice president and general counsel recently opined that “I would imagine SPACs will be a lot more narrowly used.”
In 2021, 12 space startups raised nearly $4 billion through SPAC deals.
The proposed SEC rules published March 30 would align SPAC disclosure and liability rules more closely with those of traditional IPOs. Companies would need to disclose, for example, who would profit from the SPAC deals and at what share price.
Under the proposed SEC rules, SPAC underwriters also would be liable for material misstatements of fact, just like the underwriters of traditional IPOs.
Monica Palko, York Space Systems chief legal and administrative officer summarized the correct view of SPACs when she stated that “A SPAC is a tool just like a shovel . . . You can use a shovel to dig a garden or you can use a shovel to bludgeon someone to death. A SPAC is a legitimate way to go public, but it should really never be viewed as a shortcut to going public.”
However, from my perspective the same thing can be said about a stick of TNT. But between you and me, I’d rather have any supplies of TNT carefully regulated before they were stored in my neighborhood. What are your thoughts on this change?
5. Finally, in the largest commercial launch deal ever, Amazon is purchasing up to 83 launches from Arianespace, Blue Origin and United Launch Alliance to deploy most of its 3,236-satellite Project Kuiper broadband megaconstellation. These contracts are estimated to be worth several billion dollars.
Amazon did not disclose financial terms but said it is spending billions of dollars on these contracts as part of the constellation’s $10 billion overall cost.
Tory Bruno, chief executive of ULA, said in a company statement that “With a total of 47 launches between our Atlas and Vulcan vehicles, we are proud to launch the majority of this important constellation. Amazon’s investments in launch infrastructure and capability upgrades will benefit both commercial and government customers.”
The Arianespace deal includes 18 Ariane 6 launches. While Blue Origin is selling 12 New Glenn launches with an option for 15 more.
The launches will take place over five years, but Amazon declined to state when the launches would begin. None of the three vehicles are currently in service, although both Ariane 6 and Vulcan are scheduled to make their first launches this year.
The first New Glenn launch, however, will not take place this year.
Notably absent is SpaceX. However, a spokesperson from Amazon told SpaceNews that “Amazon has talked to every major launch provider and they will continue to explore all options for future launch services.”
Amazon needs many launches quickly to meet requirements of its Federal Communications Commission license awarded in July 2020. That license requires Amazon to have half its satellites in orbit by July 2026 and the complete constellation in orbit three years later. Amazon has yet to launch any Kuiper satellites.
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